Just three months into his tenure, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government is on the verge of collapse. After invoking an emergency constitutional provision to push through a controversial social-security budget without parliamentary approval, Barnier now faces a vote of no-confidence on December 4, which could end his government.
An Alliance Against Barnier
The motion of no-confidence was introduced by the left-wing alliance and swiftly backed by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party. Together, the two groups hold enough votes to bring down the government, marking the first such collapse since 1962.
Barnier, who gained international recognition for leading the European Union’s Brexit negotiations, had tried to compromise with opposition parties on his €60 billion budget plan. This package, aimed at reducing France’s deficit from 6.1% of GDP in 2024 to 5% in 2025, includes tax hikes and spending cuts. While Barnier conceded on some RN demands—such as scrapping electricity tax increases and medical reimbursement cuts—he refused to cancel a planned delay in state pension adjustments for inflation, prompting Le Pen to withhold her support.
“The French have had enough,” Le Pen declared, positioning her party as the pivotal force in the 577-seat National Assembly.
What Happens If Barnier Falls?
If the no-confidence vote succeeds, Barnier and his ministers would likely remain in a caretaker role, but the entire budget would be voided. In such a scenario, temporary measures from the 2024 budget would be extended into 2025, but without critical inflation adjustments. The responsibility for drafting a new budget would fall to the next government, further complicating France’s public finances and unsettling markets.
On December 2, the spread between French and German 10-year sovereign bonds widened to its highest level since 2012, reflecting market jitters over the political uncertainty.
Macron’s Dilemma
For President Emmanuel Macron, losing a third prime minister in a year would underscore the deadlock in parliament following his failed snap legislative elections in July. With no option to call new elections until July 2025, Macron faces limited and difficult choices.
He could reappoint Barnier, but this would likely lead to another confidence vote. Alternatively, Macron may attempt to find a leader from the center-left who could unite fragmented factions in parliament. However, the left-wing bloc, spanning from Trotskyists to moderate social democrats, remains deeply divided and far from a majority.
Political Instability Ahead
France is bracing for yet another chapter of political instability, with economic and social tensions adding urgency to the need for effective governance. As the country grapples with uncertainty, all eyes are on the upcoming vote and its potential fallout.
Stay tuned to WrapUp TV for updates on this developing story and its implications for France and beyond.
