Now that Sean “Diddy” Combs has been found guilty on two counts of transportation to engage in prostitution, all eyes are on what his sentence will be.
Sentencing in federal cases often comes with a wide range of possibilities, and this one is no different. Judge Arun Subramanian—whom Diddy once praised with a “You’re doing an excellent job”—has the power to hand down anything from time served, allowing Diddy to walk free, to the full 20-year maximum allowed by law.
As his October 3 sentencing date approaches, several key factors will come into play—including prior history, the specifics of the charges, and how the judge weighs the case overall. Experts are already weighing in with their projections on what kind of time, if any, the music mogul could actually serve.
The Role of Sentencing Guidelines
From 1984 to 2005, federal judges had very little wiggle room when it came to sentencing. Sentences were tightly controlled by mandatory guidelines that set a narrow punishment range based on factors like the nature of the offense and the defendant’s criminal history.
That all changed with the 2005 Supreme Court decision in United States v. Booker. The ruling made those once-mandatory guidelines advisory instead. Now, judges are still required to consider the guideline range, but they’re not bound by it—they can go higher or lower depending on the specifics of the case.
How the Sentencing Guidelines Actually Work
Here’s how the federal system calculates sentencing: it uses a table based on two main factors—the offense level and the criminal history category.
The offense level is a number from 1 to 43, with higher numbers indicating more serious crimes. The criminal history is broken down into six categories, from least (Category I) to most severe (Category VI). You find the point where those two numbers meet on the sentencing chart, and that gives you a recommended range in months.
But the offense level isn’t always straightforward. While it’s based on the core crime, it can shift up or down depending on other factors—like how the crime was committed, whether the defendant accepted responsibility, or if there were aggravating circumstances. Both the prosecution and defense can argue for changes to that number, and those arguments can dramatically affect the guideline range.
In Diddy’s case, this makes things murky. Both sides agree his criminal history is minimal—he falls into Category I. But they have very different views on what the offense level should be, which could lead to very different sentencing outcomes.
The Difference Between Level 24 and 16
Both the prosecution and defense agree on one thing in Diddy’s case: the base offense level is 14. That starting point, combined with his Category I criminal history (the lowest possible), would suggest a sentencing range of 15 to 21 months.
But that’s where the agreement ends.
Diddy’s legal team adjusts the base slightly higher for technical reasons, ending up at a level 16, which comes with a suggested sentence of 21 to 27 months. Their approach is simple: two victims (Cassie Ventura and Jane Doe), which adds two levels to the base 14—no more, no less. No claims of obstruction, no added victims, and no managerial enhancements.
The prosecution, however, is going for the max.
“They’re throwing in the kitchen sink,” says legal analyst Terri Austin. “[They’re] adding as much as they possibly can.”
Here’s what the prosecution adds on top of the base offense:
- +3 levels: Arguing Combs was a “manager or supervisor” in “extensive” criminal activity.
- +2 levels: Claiming he obstructed or tried to obstruct the investigation.
- +5 levels: Alleging there were more than six victims—counting seven escorts from Combs’ so-called “freak-offs” as victims, even though only Cassie and Jane Doe were named in the actual charges.
Austin is skeptical of that last claim: “No one ever argued during the case that these escorts were victims.”
With all those additions, the prosecution bumps Diddy’s offense level up to 24. That pushes his recommended sentence to 51 to 63 months—more than double the defense’s proposal.
Ultimately, it’s up to Judge Arun Subramanian to decide which argument holds and where the final offense level—and Diddy’s sentence—will land.
Splitting the Difference
“He’s probably going to pick a number somewhere between where the prosecution is asking, and the defense is asking.”
That’s the take from Arick Fudali, an attorney with The Bloom Firm who’s handled multiple high-profile sexual assault cases—and currently represents both a John Doe and former Danity Kane member Dawn Richard in lawsuits against Combs.
Speaking with Complex, Fudali emphasized that Judge Subramanian has full discretion to determine what sentence fits. “So he can—this is a terrible metaphor—split the baby,” he said. “The judge does have the discretion to pick a number in between [what the prosecution and the defense present].”
Legal analyst Terri Austin echoed the sentiment.
“The defense usually argues for the smallest amount under the guidelines, and the prosecution argues for the most,” she said. “And then you come out somewhere in the middle. So I think that’s what the judge will do.”
But Wait, There’s More
As if things weren’t already complex enough, there’s another twist—those sentencing guidelines aren’t binding. Judge Subramanian has the authority to go above or below the recommended range. But there’s a catch.
Legal analyst Terri Austin notes that straying too far from the guidelines could potentially lead to appeal issues, especially if the reasoning isn’t solid.
And let’s not forget: before she was dismissed from the Justice Department, lead prosecutor Maureen Comey had already made her position clear. During Diddy’s bond hearing—right after the verdict—she stated she would push for the statutory maximum: a full 20 years behind bars, well above the guideline range.
Could the judge go below the guidelines instead? Don’t count on it.
“Judges rarely go below the guidelines,” Austin says flatly.
Looking for Clues
So, has Judge Subramanian dropped any hints about which way he might lean? Complex posed that question to both Terri Austin and Arick Fudali, and both pointed to the bond hearing as a possible window into the judge’s thinking.
At that hearing, Subramanian chose to keep Diddy in custody until sentencing, citing past acts of violence—some of which Combs’ own legal team acknowledged during trial. The judge said Combs had shown a “disregard for the rule of law and a propensity for violence,” and that he couldn’t be convinced the mogul wouldn’t pose a danger to others.
“I do think looking at how the judge was leaning during the bail argument does give you some indication of what he’s going to do in terms of the incarceration,” Austin told Complex.
Fudali agreed, saying, “I think that [the bond hearing] actually is a good clue as to what’s important to him—that he is certainly considering the violence and what Mr. Combs’ threat to society and to his prior victims actually is.”
Does that mean the judge is leaning toward the prosecution’s push for a tougher sentence? Maybe—but it’s not a lock. As Fudali pointed out, there’s a wide range of things the judge could consider: guideline recommendations, the nature of the crime, the defendant’s background, impact statements from victims, and more.
“The judge can basically consider, or not consider, almost anything,” Fudali said.
Still, despite all the unknowns, he expects Subramanian to land “somewhere between the defense’s and the prosecution’s suggestion.”
What Diddy’s Sentence Could Actually Look Like
By the time Sean Combs is sentenced, he’ll have already spent just over a year behind bars—a stretch that will likely count toward whatever sentence he receives.
In the federal system, sentences over a year typically qualify for “good time credit,” meaning inmates often serve about 85% of their term. That’s one reason why federal sentences often start at “a year and a day”—it opens the door for early release based on good behavior and program participation.
The math can get messy, but here’s a rough breakdown using a 36-month sentence as an example—right in the middle of what the defense and prosecution are proposing.
- Time already served: 12 months
- Remaining sentence: 24 months
- 85% rule applied: Diddy could serve around 20–21 more months
Of course, this isn’t set in stone. Judge Subramanian will determine the final guideline range, decide whether to credit time served, and choose whether to stick to, exceed, or go below those guidelines. Even the 85% credit isn’t guaranteed—it depends on behavior, participation in qualifying programs, and other variables.
In the end, Diddy’s actual release date will come down to one person: the same judge who oversaw his trial.
